PLASFEDDERGİ S|24

PLASFED DERGİ FROM THE INDUSTRY Ph.D. Selçuk Mutlu Acting Secretary General PLASFED Plastics likely to achieve 10%export growth this year Global Markets The US non-farm payrolls data was very solid in October 2018. In October, FED’s higher interest rate policy became more precise as an outcome of the development of new 250,000 jobs. As is known, central banks seek to increase interest rates as a measure to prevent inflation caused by the observed rising employment rate. In this context, the expectation is that the interest rate hike policy will continue growing stronger to prevent further warming of the US economy, which crea- ted 195,000 new jobs every month in the last year on average. The dot plot analysis, which was developed based on the expectation surveys conducted between the FED policy makers in every quarter, supports this expectation. As seen from the chart below, the expectation analysis conducted in September 2017 is obser- ved to increase by 50 base points compared to the analysis conducted in September 2018. In the coming period, the expectations are likely to be revised upwards again, if the US payrolls data continue growing stronger. On the other hand, it is expected that FED will continue increasing interest rates by 2020 andwill decide on an interest rate of approximately 3% in the long term. The pursuit of the same policy by other developed countries will cause the interest of global money markets to be drawn away from emerging markets, including Turkey, for a while. October 2016 November 2016 December 2016 January 2017 February 2017 March 2017 Appril 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 September 2017 October 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 Appril 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 Seeptember 2018 October 2018 November 2017 December 2017 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 New US non-farm payrolls (Thousand) 122

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